MARKET PROJECTION

Patented Drug Market Forecast

As the purchasing power for medicines is low, the development of the generic drug market will outpace that of its patented counterpart. Patent expirations will negatively affect the value of the patented drug segment. The inability of domestic stakeholders to pay for the imported high-value medicines at least over the short term will also curtail the sales of patented drugs.

 

OTC Drug Market Forecast

Driven by demand, analgesics will remain the leading component of the OTC market, although vitamins and minerals are also likely to experience relatively strong growth over the forecast period. However, as part of a health awareness drive, the authorities are likely to target misuse and overuse of OTCs – even though this situation has arisen from the lack of access to and availability of some types of medicines on the market, forcing the consumers to take what is available, rather than what is necessary.

Prescription Drug Market Forecast

Iran’s epidemiological profile highlights a rising demand for lung  cancer, asthma and respiratory disease treatments, which are mostly available only through prescription. Government financing efforts to increase the public’s access to healthcare services and the fact that hospitals in the country continue to act as the main point of access to healthcare in the absence of a comprehensive primary care network, will ensure the dominance of the prescription market over the long term.

Generic Drug Market Forecast

The outlook for generic drug sales in Iran is favorable. With generic drugs habitually prescribed and the end of sanctions paving the way for increased foreign investment in drug production and infrastructure, sales in this segment will increase. Economic factors and government initiatives should also have a positive impact on generic drug volumes. Generic medicines currently account for over half of the market by value, although the lack of reliable data will remain an issue with regard to our historical valuations and forecasts.

Patented Drug Market Forecast

As the purchasing power for medicines is low, the development of the generic drug market will outpace that of its patented counterpart. Patent expirations will negatively affect the value of the patented drug segment. The inability of domestic stakeholders to pay for the imported high-value medicines at least over the short term will also curtail the sales of patented drugs.

SWOT Analysis–Internal & External Factors

Strengths
Strengths
400 million people living in Iran and its 15 export-region neighbours
5.5% expected pharmaceutical market growth over the next 12 months
100+ pharmaceutical manufacturers in Iran
Rich in resources
Good transport system
Highly trained & educated workforce
Strong sales and marketing
Strong distribution system
Pharmalyze® the integrated online marketing system
Value chain integrity
Weaknesses
Weaknesses
Sanctions
Bank financing
Cost plus pricing
Inflation
Quality vs. Price
Opportunities
Opportunities
Lifting of Sanctions
Country eager to attract foreign investments and to form partnerships
Over 100 pharmaceutical manufacturers increasing trend of API importation
Over 200,000 pharmacies operating as Strategic Technical Business Units (STBU’s) (final link in pharmaceutical delivery chain)
Increase in imports of quality excipients and drug delivery systems
Development of high tech local production
Infusion of biotechnology into pharmaceutical industry
Low production cost in iran due to energy cost
Threats
Threats
Low quality . low price competitors
Iran International Relations


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